Duck and Cover! UPDATED

I have made some editorial changes for better readability.

I was born in 1959. Therefore, the mid 1960’s hold some of my first memories. One such memory is the discussion I heard from my father and aunt about the Cuban Missile Crisis. I remember sitting on the front porch hearing their political meanderings moving from that crisis to the Duck and Cover drills held in schools all across America because The USSR had nuclear weapons and they were pointed at major cities in the United States. During these drills, students were told what to do. For example, when the warning bells rang, students were to stop what they were doing and hide under their desk to await further instructions. I remember hearing, as I grew older, from others that were students in the 50’s about how afraid they were during those times. It seems that they were afraid that one day that they would hear the bells ring and it would not be a drill. It was during such times as this that people were encouraged to go out and build their own bomb shelters in their back yards. There were even recommendations as to what needed to be in the bomb shelter. It seemed that many in this time were warned of a coming disaster that everyone needed to be prepared and if you were not prepared it was your own fault if your family was lost to the coming doom. Some may argue that I am overstating the fear from that era, but one can think back eight years to the beginning of 2000 when the Y2K bug was propagated as a coming destruction. Countries that did not spend as much money on getting prepared fared as well if not better than countries that spent considerable amounts.

All of this to remind you that our leaders sometimes overstate some things for who knows what particular reason. It is this same type of overstating that I see concerning the recent stats from the SBC Annual Church Profile. The BP story from this profile points to the Baptismal rates being the lowest since 1987. This story is not something we should take lightly. We should be very concerned about these rates falling and we should come together to do something about it. Dr. Bobby Welch issued a clarion call to the convention during his presidency and was marginalized by some as being overzealous about promoting such a thing as one million baptisms. Much to the surprise of some in our convention the Baptism rates feel further instead of increasing. This zealousness in promoting baptisms resulted in allowing local churches to have their baptismal services during the annual convention, something else that caused further marginalization. Somehow, during his presidency, a bus was purchased for him to use to promote leading people to faith and helping to increase baptisms. This produced churches holding public baptisms at local lakes and swimming pools. No doubt that Dr. Welch increased the understanding that as Baptist churches we should be about baptizing. However, with this promotion, why has it produced lower rates? Could it be sarcastic barbs privately issued forth from some that may be in leadership positions? Could it be the lack of other convention leaders to get behind something like this for fear of the marginalization that will come? Who know?!?!

From this latest report we now have our leading researcher pointing, not to the decline in baptisms, but the decline in church membership. Not only that but one of our Seminary Presidents broke his standing policy of not commenting on blogs to being among the first to comment. Dr. Akin certainly offered some insight about the need for Southern Baptist to draw closer to God and to seek his face. I commend him on his assessment of SB’s need for revival. However, the article was about overall SB church membership being down. Dr. Alvin Reid followed up in a comment about the need for sharing the gospel and living the gospel, as he said in one sentence, ‘when we leave church and go to the local restaurant and leave a measly tip’. It seems that Dr. Reid, as I have come to expect of him, brings everything back to evangelism being more than just guiding someone down the Romans Road. He presents great insight into evangelistic practices and how he is doing what he is preaching with the students that he teaches. I also know that from experience. Once again, as with Dr. Akin, it seems that Dr. Reid has missed that the article was about Church membership being down from 2006.

Move with me from the above blog reporting this decline to another blog where I first saw the link to Dr. Stetzer’s article. In this comment stream one certainly sees the sky is falling theme that some are using to try and create a crisis to make changes happen faster. One commenter states the we have not lost the central tenets of the gospel. I would agree with that statement. I do not know of any Southern Baptist Church that does not believe in the death burial and resurrection of Jesus Christ. He goes on to state in question form; Have we stopped living and preaching the totality of the gospel? I believe living and preaching is a definition that needs to be defined. For some, living and preaching is tied to this type of initiative, and for others going green has nothing to do with living the gospel. Not that I advocate destroying the land and water supplies, but me throwing my child’s happy meal wrapper out of the window, certainly is not the same as ripping out a page of scripture.

What does it mean to live and preach the totality of the Gospel? It seems that language is in constant change. What is the totality of the Gospel? As I understand the totality of the Gospel, it is justification, sanctification, and glorification. Fleshed out, it is the presentation, identification, and the finalization of the life that God has called us as Christians. In the presentation, one is presented the facts from Scripture and as the Holy Spirit draws one to the Father that one responds to the free gift of salvation. One then, as a result of that decision freely identifies oneself in the death burial and resurrection of Jesus Christ through the physical act of Baptism by immersion into the body of Christ which is actualized in the presence of the local church. One continues being drawn closer to Christ through the disciplines of the Faith by a discipling mentor/mentoree relationship, sharing Christ with others as one follows the journey God has purposed. Then one’s salvific finalization is experienced through either the physical death that is definite, or the rapture of the church, which I believe will happen in the millennium I more intimately refer to as Pre. That is what has most often been referred to as the totality of the Gospel, (minus the Pre-millennium thing).

Well, you have heard my assessment of what others have written, allow me to give my assessment of the ACP report. If one would click on the picture it will enlarge to the point that it can be read. As it becomes readable one will find some interesting figures. We are being told by some that the decline of younger leaders is the reason that we see a decline in church membership. However, we see that we have added 473 churches since 2006. I understand that one can argue about what constitutes a church, but we certainly seem to see that number increase. These probably are church starts and that should speak something good about what we are doing. An argument can also be made that out of 44k churches1/10 of one % is not that strong. Also, while we show a .24% decrease in Church Membership, we are showing a .16% increase in Worship Attendance. Here is another interesting fact. We are showing a .08% drop in Other Additions. This to me is an exciting statistic because for years we were told that we must stop swapping the sheep and begin converting the goats. Another statistic that excites me is the Disciple Training Enrollment, we have seen that increase .09%. Why does this excite me? Because I believe the if this increases, then the Total Church Membership numbers will continue to fall. Why? Because as a disciple we will continue to make certain that we maintain regenerate church membership on our roles.

Bottom Line

For me the bottom line is that we do need to be concerned, but we do not need to issue a Sky if Falling warning to our people. Do you realize that for the past two conventions we have seen a public discussion of regenerate church membership? This discussion, I believe, has been ongoing among pastors across the convention. I know that I have been hearing this discussion since I was in seminary about how churches should clear their roles of church members, that no one could find, and also those one could find but were not planning to attend any more. I believe that the decline in Church Membership totals certainly has something to do with churches taking seriously the call for a regenerate church membership.

Also, the increase in Discipleship Training is exciting because, as stated above, if one becomes a better disciple, one will take seriously the accountability of Hebrews 10:25, and one will evangelize more. If one evangelizes more, one will see baptisms in the local church increase, if one sees baptisms in the local church increase, one will see church membership begin to increase again. Of course I believe the church membership increase will go through a huge decline before it begins increasing. Why? It seems that we are maintaining people on our church roles that are either already in glory, or living somewhere else, or are not regenerate. Discipleship will handle much of this.

Where does this leave us? I believe we certainly need to be concerned with the drop in Baptisms. That is what concerns local pastors, or should. Also, we need to make certain that we compare apples to apples before we announce the sky is falling and the SBC is in decline based on Church Membership Totals. What do I mean? If you read this article thoroughly, you will find Dr. Rainer pointing out something very significant. 1,300 fewer churches submitted 2007 ACP data than the number in 2006. According to Lifeway Research the SBC is 80% small churches. Lifeway Research clasifies small churches as those fewer than 150, according to Dr. Brad Waggoner now VP of Holman Publishing. I will stay really safe and take the figure 50 and apply it to the 1300 churches that did not submit a ACP in 2007, but did in 2006. That means 65,000 church members went unreported in 2007 that were reported by these 1300 churches in 2006. We are showing a drop of 39,326 church members and are being told that the SBC is in decline. Well, I just possible found 65,000 church members that were not even reported. Of course one could argue that these churches are ones that have disengaged. But do we know that or could it be that they simply did not meet the deadline for reporting and will be included in next year’s numbers? This is the reason why I believe to use Total Church Membership numbers as one’s basis to state the SBC is in decline is kind of–not accurate.

All I am saying is that we need to focus on the Baptism rates. That definitely is something that should concern everyone.